viridian chart of the week

The graph shows the calculated percentage growth rates of EBITDA, arranged in increasing order of sequential quarterly growth rates (orange bars.) The blue bars show year-over-year growth rates, and the green bars show estimated full-year 2024 EBITDA vs actual 2023 EBITDA.  Half of the...

The first week of 2024 saw significant stock price appreciation for most of the 30 stocks Viridian Capital Advisors credit ranks weekly. As a proxy, the MSOS ETV rose 12.84%, the sharpest uptick since the HHS announcement at the end of August. There was no particular news to account for the uptick...

This week’s Viridian Chart of the Week looks at the stock prices of the leaders in several cannabis sectors, including Agriculture Technology, Cultivation and Retail, Psychedelics, and Financial Services, relative to their 52-week highs and lows. The chart is arranged in increasing order of...

The Viridian Credit Tracker model is a valuable tool for investors and companies alike to gauge the credit quality of cannabis companies. The model utilizes 11 market-based and financial statement-based variables to measure four critical attributes of credit quality: Liquidity, Leverage,...

The MSOS ETF is now up 41.4% from the August 30, 2023, HHS rescheduling announcement, but it has fallen significantly from its peak gain of 85.0% in mid-September. The Viridian Chart of the Week looks at the potential upside and downside of the top 15 MSOs concerning a DEA announcement on...

2023 has been a disappointing year for cannabis, and according to consensus estimates, the top ten MSOs will have a 2023 revenue growth of only 1% and an EBITDA decline of 1% compared to 2022. 2023 has been a disappointing year for cannabis, and according to consensus estimates, the top ten...

Third-quarter earnings have been released for all companies in the Viridian Chart of the Week. Equity prices have had an opportunity to react to the news (or not).  The orange line in the chart shows the EV/ 2024 Consensus EBITDA estimates—the enormous range from 1.63x for Cansortium...

Third-quarter earnings releases still have about a week to go. Still, eight companies representing over 78% of the total market cap of the fourteen MSOs with market caps over $100M have reported and appear in the graph below.  Four of the eight had small misses on revenue, ranging from 0.1...

How can we explain the cataclysmic capitulation in cannabis stock prices last week, with the MSOS ETF down 21.5%? Was it just a reaction to a less cannabis-friendly Speaker of the House? The timing of the decline, beginning in earnest on October 25, does seem to lend some credence to this view....

The Viridian Chart of the Week shows analyst estimates for MSO revenue for the third quarter of 2023 relative to the second quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2022. The green bars depict estimated sequential quarter growth for Q3:23, while the orange bars show year-over-year growth. The...

Monitoring the credit quality of portfolio companies has become critical in the capital-starved environment of 2023, and, in fact, credit analysis has become the new equity analysis. Credit quality is multidimensional by nature: The Viridian Credit Tracker Model uses 11 market and financial...

Nine of the ten largest debt raises ever completed for U.S. Cultivation & Retail companies were closed in 2021 and 2022. Over $4.3B of debt was sold over this period, far more than in any similar period in U.S. Cannabis history. Debt became the largest source of capital to the industry in 2022...

The fourteen MSOs in the graph have all worked hard over the last year to lean down their working capital usage in order to increase operating cash flow. The chart looks at the components of working capital as of June 30, 2023, adjusted for subsequent capital markets transactions. Current assets...

Second quarter 2023 earnings releases are complete, and the results were fascinating. One of the things that makes us skeptical about these quarterly reports is the forceful steering that companies apply to try to move estimates down. We generally lay out the earnings schedule weeks in...

We created a discounted cash flow model ("DCF") to calculate a range of theoretically supportable EV/EBITDA multiples, given analysts' expectations for 2022-2024 and reasonable assumptions for the seven years after that. We based our model on a hypothetical $1 of EBITDA and generated...